The current aircraft market is enough to make your head spin! Is it getting better or is it getting worse? Are inventory levels actually going up or is it just a bunch of junk listed on Controller.com? What will I pay? Am I able to complete a prebuy inspection? Is it still a seller’s market? Or is it a buyer’s market? What about supply chain issues? If I pay too much to buy an airplane, is that the end of my pain or just the beginning?
I heard you can’t get windshields, pre-coolers, wingnuts … or pilots. What? Now we have to worry about aircraft parts too?
The company that makes Hawker windshields went out of business. The company that makes pre-coolers is in Israel, but the metal comes from Ukraine. What’s a wingnut and why can’t you get them? Tires? It’s also challenging to get new tires? What’s this unobtanium that everyone keeps talking about? With a client’s Hawker currently AOG waiting on gear parts and a Mustang in a prebuy at Textron waiting on pre-coolers, the jet world feels a little scary right now, but what about our beloved King Airs?
The answer is things are looking “pretty good”!
We are waiting for a King Air windshield, but it sounds like a delay, not a disaster. Our client just ordered Raisbeck Leading Edges and Ram Air Recovery for the same airplane and those items have already been received. There was a little wait for their lockers and sweet new 5-blade composite props, but we can deal with that.
The great news for King Air owners and operators is that other than a little hiccup in windshields, Goodyear tires and the lack of replacement automatic window shades for King Air 250s, we are faring really well.
This is mostly because the King Air fleet is the largest fleet of business aircraft ever produced, a total of 7,820 King Airs of various models have been manufactured! As of the writing of this article, there are still 6,165 King Airs listed as “in operation,” which is nearly 79%! That says a lot about the durability of these airframes considering the first King Air rolled off the line in 1964, but it also means that over 1,600 airplanes are no longer in operation – many of which gave up their lives so that their parts keep other King Airs alive. Their airframes resting eternally in salvage yards from Kansas to Oklahoma, to Brandon, Mississippi (a shoutout to my buddy Carl at Davis Aviation). But it’s not just an abundant supply of used parts and spares, the network of vendors that manufacture components for King Airs is vast. In many cases, there is more than one supplier for a specific part or component. I mentioned Goodyear tires because they’re hard to get, but the Michelin tires are not, so in a time when many jets are grounded because of flat spots our beloved King Airs fly on!
What does this mean for King Air values and the King Air market in general? Stability.
The King Air market is still complicated, but it is stable. The first thing to understand is that it’s really several individual markets, divided by major model groups and also by age. Thankfully, we don’t see any issues that will taint the entire market – not supply chain problems and parts availability or concerns about dispatch reliability. The vulnerable King Air remains solid.
So, where are we today?
The question I get asked most often is, “What is going to happen with King Air prices?”
I wish I knew; I mean really knew! The reality is, it is no more possible to predict what aircraft values will do in the future than it is to predict what the stock market will do, but we can read the tea leaves and plan accordingly.
So, to answer the question, are the current prices going to remain this high? Yes, I believe they are at least for newer airplanes. In fact, they may even go up more. We do not see any signs that prices are going to drop. With a steady increase in demand and limited inventory, the best we can hope for is stability. We’re already there for the late model 90 and 200 series King Airs (more on this later).
As I mentioned earlier, the King Air market is really divided among models, the 90 series, 200 series and 350 series being the most common. You then have the “late models,” the “legacy models” and the “old models.” It hasn’t been that long ago that I would have said that the older and legacy airplanes were in the same market as the new airplanes of the same series, but that has changed. The reality is that banks and finance companies have been harder on older aircraft for many years. While that put downward pressure on the values (think cash buyer), that was the only real problem.
In today’s market we have another factor: insurance. If you tell a prospective buyer they can’t get financing, many will just pay cash. But if you tell them their insurance may be a lot more expensive, they start to think a newer airplane might be worth looking into. This is not only an unease for buyers of older airplanes, it is a concern for those purchasing newer airplanes, as well.
The reality is that the older airplanes will be leaving the operational fleet in record numbers over the next few decades. Of the 6,165 King Airs still flying, more than 2,000 are over 40 years old! The fact is that the already scarce late model King Airs are probably going to become even harder to find. There are a lot of new turboprop airplanes being built, not just King Airs, but Pilatus, TBMs, Pipers and the new Beechcraft Denali. The new airframes will help, but overall, as the older airplanes fall away and the only replacement options are new airplanes, the prices will continue to rise.
The other issue is that the TBMs and Piper M600 might be a decent replacement for the 90 series aircraft, the Pilatus and the Denali very good replacements for the King Air 200 series but … what about the 350 series?
Textron built just over 20 King Air 360s last year and that wasn’t because of lack of sales; they sold every one they could build and have a serious backlog of orders. Thankfully, the oldest 350 was born in 1990 so they aren’t aging out anytime soon, but they still aren’t being produced fast enough to meet demand and there aren’t any real substitutes. This is why I saved the 350 series for later.
In my 2021 King Air market article, I talked about how King Air values were going up and the 350s were lagging behind. Those who heeded my advice are thankful they did! The average 350 has gone up at least $1 million and the later models closer to $2 million.
While the King Air 90 and 200 markets seem to be stable with prices elevated from the year before but no longer increasing, the 350 market is showing its independence. Inventory is very low and prices continue to rise.
In summary, the market for King Airs is stable and strong, no matter what happens overall. Our King Airs will continue to be the safe harbor in any storm. They’re reliable, economical to operate, and the safest investment you’ll likely make in a business class aircraft.
Chip McClure has been in the aviation industry for over 20 years. He and his wife Amy founded Jet Acquisitions in 2015; the firm exclusively represents turbine aircraft buyers and specializes in King Airs, as well as all models of current production turboprops and jets.